Brian Gunter, Narooma, NSW, Australia http://members.westnet.com.au/brigun/climatic_matters.html
"The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially about the future." - Mark Twain
Having a professional background as an engineering hydrologist, I am always interested in matters such as rainfall, floods and droughts. With the recent interest in "climate change" (previously referred to as "global warming") I have extended my interests to air temperature and sea levels.
I am not a meteorologist and therefore don't delve into the various complex mechanisms that produce our weather. The extent of my activities is to examine and analyse the recorded historical data that are available on such climatic parameters as rainfall, air temperature and sea level.
According to many (but not all) people, including many (but not all) scientists and scientific organisations, worldwide climatic conditions have dramatically changed in the past half century and alarm-bells are being sounded. A common claim is that increased human activity has produced "greenhouse gases" which result in a dramatic warming of the world's atmosphere. These people predict that, unless "greenhouse gases" are dramatically reduced in the near future the world will suffer from increasing from increased droughts, heat-waves, floods, destructive storms and ecological disruption. Furthermore, melting ice in the polar regions are predicted to result in significant rises in sea levels with serious effects on major cities and coastal regions throughout the world.
These are serious claims which deserve logical scientific analysis. The present situation, as I see it, is that while most of the scientific community publicaly support these dire predictions, there is also a sizeable number of scientists who are skeptical of these predictions. For the purpose of this website I will refer to these two groups as being "alarmists" and "skeptics". Of course there are also many scientists that fall between these two extreme positions.
As an engineer with 30-years professional experience working in the field of hydrology I consider myself well-qualified to be included in the community of scientists who are qualified to analyse the subject of climate change. Furthermore, as a retiree I have no financial or security reason for being either an alarmist or a skeptic, I believe that I am capable of looking at the subject from an objective viewpoint.
My approach is simple. I look at the available climatic and other data over the past century or more and make a completely independent assessment of various climatic trends. My premise is that these analyses of basic data should indicate whether or not there has been any dramatic changes in the past half-century. If the recent climate trends are similar to what had occurred in the first half of the 20th century, and for periods prior to this, we don't have a problem and we can all stop worrying about the future! On the other hand, if recent climatic changes are significantly different than for earlier period we should take urgent action to explain the changes and implement any actions that are possible to correct this situation.
My analyses can be seen in the following website links:
I would welcome your feedback on anything that I have written on this website. Although I have been as objective as I can during the analyses, it is always possible that I have overlooked some important point, and I would appreciate if this is pointed out to me.
Brian Gunter firstname.lastname@example.org
Prepared 8 March 2012
This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma (NSW, Australia). In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (formerly the Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Bureau of Meteorology.