"The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially about the future." - Mark Twain

Are the Arctic and other "cold northern" locations becoming significantly warmer in recent years? 

Are there any reliable, long-term temperature records available for this region?

Do historical temperature records give us any indication of probable future temperature trends?

Should we reconsider any plans of migrating to Greenland or Siberia to escape from the effects of "global warming"?

Some of these questions are answered below.   Please send me your comments.

Long-term air temperature records at 28 stations in the "Cold Northern Region" have been extracted from the website of KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute).  This is all raw data (GHCN), without any adjustments ever having been made (as far as I am aware).  The "Cold Northern Region" is defined as locations in the northern hemisphere with mean annual temperatures of less than +5ºC.  These stations are mainly located at latitudes north of 50ºN, but exclude high elevation stations in the European Alps.  Only stations with largely complete and post-2005 records were selected.  Only stations located in rural areas or in small towns were used in this analysis in order to minimise local effects of urbanisation.  

The latest data that I could locate were for July 2011.

I have not been able to make any quality checks on the data.  It is possible that there have been some changes in station locations and instrumentation over the periods of record, but regional comparisons will reduce this influence.

Graphical plots are presented below of annual mean temperatures at each of the 28 stations.  [ Annual mean temperatures are the average of the mean daily temperatures over each year (the mean daily temperatures are the average of the observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures). ]   

In addition, the mean monthly temperatures for the warmest and coldest months (based on long-term averages) at each station are plotted.  The warmest months are always July or August.  The coldest months are generally January or February although one location had its warmest month in March. 

A mean trend line has been fitted through each of the sets of data.

MY CONCLUSIONS:

1.  At most of the 28 stations there was an overall trend of increasing temperature over the period of records.  This is significant as it shows that regional air temperatures have been increasing over the past 150-200 years (and probably longer) and is not a recent phenomena.  [ This long-term positive trend is consistent with even longer records in temperate regions of Europe and with the acknowledged significant increase in global temperatures since the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) which was the coldest period of the Little Ice Age (1280-1850. ]

2.  The long-term temperature trends at all stations showed well-defined cyclic variations - this is a most important conclusion.  The typical period of the temperature cycles is about 80 years which meant that most of the stations analysed showed only one cycle.  In general terms, it is seen from the graphs, that temperatures were increasing prior to about 1930.  From about 1930 until about 1970 temperatures were either relatively stable or decreased.  From about 1970 temperatures have generally increased.  It should be noted that the rate of temperature increase in the 1920s was quite often similar to that recorded in the 1990s - deja vu!  The obvious conclusion is that we (if we are "cold northerners"!) may be close to a natural cyclical peak and that temperatures may soon stabilise or even decrease.

3.  It was difficult to assess the average long-term trend rates due to the cyclical trends at most stations.  Over the past 70-90 year cycle it was found that the mean annual temperature had increased by between zero and +1°C.  Corresponding typical increases in the summer (July or August) mean temperatures were -1°C to +1°C Typical winter (January or February) mean temperatures increased between zero and +2°C .

4.  About half of the stations had significant higher temperatures during the past 10 to 20 years, but these were mostly within the historical variation from the long-term cyclical trends.  There is no evidence of an alarming regional change in temperature trends in recent years.  In many cases there have been past periods of higher temperatures relative to the long-term trend (eg in the 1920s), or lower temperatures (eg in the 1970s), but recovery to the average long-term trend has always occurred within a few decades.  The danger of attempting to identify meaningful temperature trends using any data of less than about 100-years duration is obvious.

5.  Overall, my conclusion is that this analysis confirms the known long-term global trend of increasing temperatures over the past 300 years but does not identify any recent change in temperatures that are inconsistent with what has been observed in the past.  The historical cyclic pattern indicates that temperature trends in the not-too-distant future may stabilise or even decrease and temperatures will remain consistent with their long-term trends.

7.  Certainly the "Cold Northern" region is getting warmer, but at a rate consistent with the cyclical trend that has been occurring over the past 300 years.  My analysis shows that this warming has not become alarming in recent years and need not be cause for undue concern.  It should be noted that all of the data that I have used are from rural or small-town locations and therefore are indicative of the situation that occurs outside of localised urban areas where most people live.