Brian Gunter, Narooma, NSW, Australia http://members.westnet.com.au/brigun/faraday-temps.html
"Trends are not always trendy"
Has the Antarctic continent become significantly warmer in recent years?
Here is a detailed analysis of the temperature data recorded at Faraday/Vernadsky station since 1944.
Faraday station, in Antarctica, was operated by the United Kingdom from March 1944 until 1996 when the station was transferred to Ukraine and renamed Vernadsky. The station is located on the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula (see map) with coordinates -65.25°N -64.27°E.
Records continue up to 2015, although there were many missing records during the 1992-2002 period. The raw data were extracted from the website of the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI).
Graphical plots are presented below of values of mean temperatures for each of the 12 months and also for each year (January-December).
A polynomial trend line was fitted through each of the sets of data.
This study is a more detailed analysis of temperature trends that I have made for 13 long-term stations in Antarctica. http://members.westnet.com.au/brigun/antarctica-temps.html That study showed that mean summer, winter and annual temperatures at 10 of the 13 stations also had essentially zero temperature trends over the past 60-70 years. The three stations located on the more-northerly Antarctic Peninsula had significant increased temperature over that same period.
The temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky station has increased over the past 70 years, the mean annual temperature by about 2.5°C. Much of this change occurred during the 1970-1980 period.
During the most of the warmer months, September-April, An apparent jump in mean monthly temperatures occurred around 1970, since which time (about 45 years) there has been little increase in temperature.
For the cooler months (May-October) there has been a fairly steady increase in temperature of 3-5°C over the past 70 years.
There is no evidence of any discontinuity in the records in 1996 when the station management was transferred from the UK to Ukraine and the reason for an apparent discontinuity around 1970 is not known.
The temperature increase at Faraday/Verdansky station over the past 70 years is much greater than that observed at more-southerly stations. Various explanations, including local volcanic activity and ocean current and wind changes, have been suggested by others.
So, there is evidence of a significant change in the temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky over the past 72 years!
ANNUAL AND MONTHLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT FARADAY/VERNADSKY STATION, ANTARCTICA
Annual Mean Temperatures
This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma, NSW. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Bureau of Meteorology.
27 May 2015